This article was translated from our English edition using AI technologies. Errors may exist due to this process. The opinions expressed by the collaborators of Entrepreneur they are personal.
Brilliant ideas are few. There are fewer than 100 truly large markets in the world. And there is no point in developing a second Twitter or a second Snapchat.
So, all the good ideas have already been tried, right? And either it took off (and it’s too late to repeat it), or it didn’t take off (and it won’t take off with you, you’re no better than tens or hundreds of predecessors). There will be no new blockbuster companies anymore, right?
Of course not.
The world is changing. What might have failed 10 years ago may have a chance to become a huge success now. Future giants will attempt what was previously thought unnecessary or impossible. For example, the main technological change of the last 30 years, the reduction in the cost of communication, has made regular interaction between cities and continents economically viable. The result is Facebook, Amazon, Booking.com, Alibaba and others. For 10 years, everyone has had a smartphone in their pocket, and this is where Uber, Instagram and the neobanks came in.
While using Nokia 3310 or even Samsung S55, taxi call client app didn’t make any sense. Probably quite a few people tried to start a business similar to Uber, but they didn’t stand a chance. On June 29, 2007, the first iPhone appeared and the world changed forever. Uber was founded in March 2009, one of the first of its kind, taking advantage of a window of opportunity that had been open for just a few years. The company is now worth $85 billion.
The same show can be repeated with other actors. Before the massive expansion of the web, it was impossible to trade over the Internet. Once it became popular, a niche for online shopping emerged. Jeff Bezos wasn’t the first to do it, but he was one of the first and one of the most successful, and now Amazon is worth $1.7 trillion.
Related: 3 Signs Your Startup Could Die, Taken From Startups That Actually Died
The world keeps changing
New windows are likely to appear. We just have to be among the first to attack.
What is there now or what will appear in the near future that was not here ten years ago? There are many things. Someone will immediately update you on the new global warming and population growth records (hello, Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods). Someone is very excited about CRISPR: surely unicorns will start showing up here too.
Someone will definitely mention cryptocurrencies and NFTs. This is where there is a lot of money and where the barrier to entry is still small. Do you want to see a new Google or Facebook? Look at the crypto exchange FTX. Now its founder Sam Bankman-Fried is valued at $26.5 billion at age 29.
But more globally in the IT sphere, the leader seems to be obvious. In recent years, artificial intelligence has finally become a reality. This change is massive. A computer now solves any mundane task better and cheaper than humans. It can recognize faces, find the best value for money, hire people, drive cars, and even predict customer emotions. This means that almost all of them can be replaced by artificial intelligence. In just a few decades, machine learning programs will handle a vast amount of work that is currently done by people. And these revolutionary programs would have to be developed by very specific companies, some of which could be start-ups.
Related: When shouldn’t you invest in AI?
there will be a lot of money
According to US labor market statistics, there are 3.5 million cashiers and 4.5 million drivers. If we consider that their average salary is $30K per year, that means these are $100-$135B markets each in the US alone. For comparison, Facebook’s global revenue in 2020 was $84 billion.
Of course, we’re not the only ones who can type “most popular profession” into Google. Only the laziest big corporation is not in the race to driverless cars now. Vendorless stores are also a popular theme, Amazon Go being a good example of how the giants are seeing it. So let’s dig a little deeper.
The limit of the “interesting” market here is easy to calculate. To build a unicorn, you need a profit of at least $50 million. The revenue, let’s say, will be $100 million. To pay him $100 million, clients would have to save at least $500 million from layoffs. That’s about 17,000 people on a modest American salary. Each industry requires a specific start-up, possibly some of them. There is plenty of room here for potentially hundreds of unicorn startups.
Over the last 15 years, we have become accustomed to the appearance of giant markets. Soon, giant automation, AI, and robotics will start appearing more and more frequently in the news. The time for change is fast approaching. New companies must destroy all boring professions. And while most of us will see how this show unfolds, the minority will shine.
Related: Smart Money: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Wealth Management.